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“They don’t expect the streets to be quiet, and they are preparing for that,” said Hamdi al-Malik, an Associate Fellow with the Washington Institute. We are involved in the process of forming a government and we have sufficient numbers to elect the president and vote for the next government,” he said.Ĭommunication and messaging from the alliance shows it is preparing for instability. Lawmaker Mohammed Sadoun, a member of the Framework, described Wednesday’s protest as an attempted coup but said it wouldn’t deter the alliance’s efforts. Turnout was only 43%.ĭespite the consequences, the Framework has signaled its readiness to move ahead with the formation of a government. Despite winning the largest share of seats, al-Sadr’s vote totals were several thousand fewer than previous balloting. That impact was clear in the October 2021 election.
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the Framework knows that even without a presence in parliament, al-Sadr will wield significant power within the state, as well as on the street, if al-Maliki’s supporters choose to move forward without the cleric’s agreement.īoth sides have also lost some popular support following massive protests in 2019 against the government that were put down by security forces that left 600 dead and thousands wounded.
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Meanwhile, al-Sadr planted a parallel deep state with key appointments that peaked in 2018.īecause of this. Neither the al-Sadr nor the al-Maliki factions can afford to be excluded from the political process, because both have much to lose.īoth sides have civil servants entrenched in Iraq’s state institutions, deployed to do their bidding when circumstances require by halting decision-making and creating bureaucratic obstructions.īy the time his eight-year tenure as prime minister ended in 2014, al-Maliki built an omnipresent deep state by installing civil servants in key institutions, including the judiciary. HOW MIGHT THE BATTLES CONTINUE OUTSIDE PARLIAMENT? The KDP had previously allied with al-Sadr, while the PUK belongs to al-Maliki’s Framework faction. They would first need to agree on a candidate for Iraq’s presidency. The two main Kurdish parties - the KDP and the PUK - also are deeply divided. This elite lost its legitimacy across society.”Įven if the al-Maliki and al-Sadr camps are able to sort out their differences, there’s a third big player in Iraqi politics: the Kurds. “This is a fight within the elite it has nothing to do with the rest of society. “There were three big messages: This is theater, there was no violence yesterday and that is deliberate on both sides,” Dodge said. Toby Dodge, an associate fellow at Chatham House, saw this as a sign that neither side wants any escalating bloodshed. Wednesday’s protest in parliament was unique for another reason: Riot police did not intervene, and there was little violence. It marks the killing of the Prophet Muhammed’s grandson, Imam Hussein, and Shiites typically march by the thousands to commemorate the holiday, with emotions running high in the days leading up to it. In galvanizing his followers, al-Sadr harnessed the anger over al-Sudani’s nomination as well as rising religious fervor ahead of the important Muslim holiday of Ashura.